Market Today on 24.10.08

As I had mentioned market breeched it 3000 crucial mark in Nifty for the first time since 24July 2006. It was again the bad global cue doing all the damage, today we may see a flat opening with an extensive volatility. Nifty may test its 2900 support but may not likely breech it. Dowjones closed in positive and Asian market are expected to have some recovery. As FII has been told to reverse its short position, some short covering is expected which may lead to a positive direction, again Nifty may hold it 3000 mark and Sensex may reach 10000 level. Inflation has further cooled down which may add advantage to the market.
The total traded turnover has quite improved; stood at Rs 67,918.19 crore. This includes Rs 10,544.45 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 53,624.95 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 3,748.79 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Nifty support is at 2900 and then at 2600 technically, and we may see Nifty touching 2900 today. Similarly in Sensex 9870 is the support level and next support is at 9400. Market range whole day is expected to be between 2890-3100 in nifty and 9600-10200 in Sensex.


HOT NEWS
*FII has been asked to reverse their short position, some short covering is expected.
*Inflation came in at 11.07% for week-ended October 11 as compared to 11.44% (WoW).
*Reliance Industries Q2 FY09 net profit was up 7.4% at Rs 4,122 crore as compared to Rs 3,837 crore. Net sales were up 39.8% or Rs 44,787 crore as against Rs 32,043 crore. Gross refining margins stood at USD 13.4 per barrel vs USD 15.4 per barrel QoQ..
*Crude oil is at about 69 $ per barrel. Support at 60 $ may be seen. Fuel price cut is on the card.
Sectors to Watch-
Banks, Realty may gain after initial jolt, Oil and Gas may have a good day. Auto will be firm. Fertilizers will have a fertile day. Power and Infrastructure may gain. FMCG, Consumer durables and Healthcare is expected to remain flat.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Aban offshore, Reliance Industries, RPL, Axis Bank, ICICI bank and Jindal steel.
On down side we may see Ranbaxy, India infoline and Tata motors.

Read more...

Market Today on 22.10.08

Though we had two striaght sessions closing in green but the volatility and market breath was not favorable at all, in spite of all necessary measures we have witnessed a time when market went in Red even in last two days, global cues remains the key which indicates a gap down opening. Nifty the gap may not be big but nifty is likely to open 30-40 points down and may fall further, the way European market crumbled today after a good run, indicates further trouble, baring a few companies Q2 numbers are not very inspiring clearly indicating an economic slowdown.
The total turnover was at 64,789.63 crore. This includes Rs 11,069.48 crore from the NSE Cash segment, Rs 49,845.05 crore from the NSE F&O and the balance Rs 3,875.10 from the BSE Cash segment
Nifty support is at 3200 and then at 2900 technically, but we may not see breeching 3000 at least for this week. Similarly in Sensex 9870 is the support level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3100-3300 in nifty and 10100-10800 in Sensex.


HOT NEWS
*Both RNRL and RIL agrees for Indian Government to be the third party in the case.
*Punj Lloyd wins a contract at Indonesia.
*JP Associates piled an exceptional Q2 numbers and profit is almost doubled, while Chennai Petro number came out to be in loss.
*Short selling may get a ban, Sebi will scrutinise the P-Note short selling data for sometime before arriving at a decision.
*ICICI Prudential shows positive growth rates despite financial crisis.
Sectors to Watch-
There may be profit booking in Realty, Autos and Metals, Capital goods and Consumer durables may too see a down fall, Banks may remain firm for one more day, Oil and Gas sector will face pressure after initial gain.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Reliance Capital, Indiainfoline, ICICI bank and JP Associates.
On down side we may see JSPL, DLF, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma

Read more...

Market today on 20.10.2008

After the end of another bad week when Sensex breeched its 10000 level for the first time since July 2006, we are heading towards another week, the start or the opening may be flat and Nifty may approach to breech its 3000 level but as the market is oversold, some good news like cut in CRR by 100 bps may show its affect and some buying may take place in selected sector. US market having a good last week may be a positive factor for us. But if Nifty breeches 3000 level significantly we may head towards another blow, volatility will be on extreme as usual.
Total market turnover on Friday stood at Rs 58,370.46 crore as against Rs 72,822.47 crore on Thursday. This includes Rs 10,477.78 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 43,767.13 crore from NSE F&O segment and balance Rs 4,125.55 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Nifty support is at 2900 and then at 2800 technically, but we may see some buying at 3000 level. Similarly in Sensex 9870 is the support level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3000-3200 in nifty and 9800-10200 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*Sensex breeched 10000 level for the first time since July 2006.
*Indication for a cut in Repo rate is on the floor of news.
*Infosys is still an over weight as per Morgan Stanley.
*Mphasis came out with fair Q2 FY 09 number.
Sectors to Watch-
Healthcare and Auto may remain flat, Banks and Realty may gain after initial jolt. Metals and IT may still remain in pressure. Capital goods may recover. Oil and Gas may enjoy fall in crude specially Oil marketting Companies.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see DCB, Axis bank, Reliance Capital, Aban offshore, Mphasis and Reliance Industries.
On down side we may see Satyam, Indiainfoline and JSPL.

Read more...

Market Today on 16.10.2008

A further chop in CRR will certainly be a morale boosting but the immediate effect doesn’t look on the scene as the global market is crumbling and our Market is following the same foot step, we may see a flat opening which in turn may proceed in green but the selling pressure will soon start as the investors not willing a single oppurtunity to sell and book profit, so some fresh shorting may be on the card leading to another fresh day with same old story. Though fall may not be freely but negative biasness will certainly be there. Participation is still very poor as the turn over indicates and it may take time to recover from this trauma.
Turnover traded in markets stood at Rs 57,406.46 crore. This includes Rs 9,838.99 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 43,996.07 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 3,571.40 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Support of 3500 in Nifty was broken as expected and the next support is at 3240 and then at 2900. Similarly in Sensex 10600 and then 9870 is the next two support level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3240-3450 in nifty and 10300-11300 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*RBI cuts CRR by 100 bps to 6.5% to infuse more liquidity in market. Bankers and MF welcomed the move.
*RBI may also provide 25000 Crores to lending institutions.
*L & T came out with poor number in Q2 FY09. Margin was 8.8% vs 9%.
*Rel Cap to synergise insurance, MF, Money products.
Sectors to Watch-
Banks, Realty, Capital goods may be flat with positive biasness on CRR cut, while Metal still looks weak, Infrastructure will be under pressure on L&T numbers, IT and Telecom will be on negative side on crumbling US market.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Reliance Capital, DLF, SBI, Bank of India and Hero Honda
On down side we may see JSPL, Infosys, RCOM, TCS and Tata Steel.

Read more...

Market Today on 15.10.2008

The way market started and then closed clearly shows lack of strength and the pull back was on short covering, again we are heading towards the same direction, though on momentum market may open flat with positive biasness but this biasness may change in direction in due course of the day and we may see the red with a couple of trading hours. Profit booking and fresh shorting will be witnessed in the first half itself until and unless some very hot and positive news comes into the picture. Global cues are not supportive, neither are the Iip numbers to boost up the market for long time.
Traded turnover was at Rs 63,360.10 crore. This includes 11,838.89 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 47,278.06 crore from NSE F&O segment and balance Rs 4,243.15 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Support of 3500 in Nifty will certainly break today and the next support is at 3240 and then at 2900. Similarly in Sensex 10600 and then 9870 is the next two support when 11400 is breeched. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3400-3550 in nifty and 11000-11600 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*US Government will infuse 125 billion dollar to rescue banks.
*A cut in interest rate is assumed by RBI very recently.
*ICICI bank assures to have enough liquidity with them.
*TCS may deal with MEA to expedite passport processing.
Sectors to Watch-
The profit booking may be witnessed again in sectors like Banks, Infrastructures and Capital goods. Oil and Gas may remain flat and metal may loose their shine further. Healthcare and Auto may see some green.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Cairns India, Maruti suzuki and Ranbaxy.
On down side we may see SBI, DLF, JSPL and Reliance Capital..

Read more...

Market today on 14.10.2008

It was a great pull back and a great start of the week, globally measures were taken to infuse liquidity in the market and to bring back the sentiments. The pull back is expected to continue in momentum and as we have a very positive global cue market may open gap up of at least 100 point in Nifty and we can see it going above 150 plus, though over all strength is still lacking as it is evident by the trading volume we can see some selling again at 3650-3700 level in Nifty.
Turnover traded was very low in today's session, stood at Rs 56,131.77 crore. This includes Rs 11,550.77 crore NSE cash segment, Rs 40,624.27 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 3,956.73 crore from BSE cash segment
If market opens a big gap up then 3500 in Nifty and 11400 will be the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 3200 level and 10300 in sensex and then at 2900 in Nifty and 9450 in Sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3470-3700 in nifty and 11300-12050 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*FM applauds RBI move for infusing liquidity and ensures for more steps to be taken.
*US FED in joint statement with the European banks said that, “Commercial banks would be able to borrow any amount they whish against the appropriate collateral in each jurisdiction”
*Kingfisher ties up with Jet airways for both local and international routes.
*ICICI managements clears the rumor against it and indicated as financial sound.
Sectors to Watch-
All the sectors today again will be on upmove and the most beaten one in past like Banks, Realty and Metals will be on top. Capiatal goods and Autos will also gain. IT and Telecom is expected to have a good recovery on record up move of US market.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Axis Bank, SBI, Jindal Steel and Power and Reliance Capital.
On down side we may see Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma .

Read more...

Market Today on 13.10.2008

After such a disasterous week we are now proceeding to another week and the market is just at its support level at 3260-3280 in Nifty. Several measures has been taken to revive the market globally and not only there was a Fed cut and CRR cut but also Bank of Englnd, China, Japan all were cutting rates to infuse some liquidity. G7 meet on Friday and Bush reassurance have made an excellent recovery for US market. We expect a gap don opening of 30-40 points in Nifty but at some point buying will be seen as most of the investors are sitting with cash and now the level is appropriate, so after a gap down market may turn into positive but how much point up it will sustain is still not clear. But if Nifty falls by more than 50 points then we may see another free fall and next support is only at 2900 level.
Total turnover on Friday traded was very low, it stood at Rs 68,100.82 crore. This includes Rs 14,727.85 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 48,279 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 5,093.97 crore from BSE cash segment
3200 in Nifty and 10400 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 2900 level and 9470 in Sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3220-3350 in nifty and 10300-10850 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*RBI cuts CRR further by 150 bps. FM assured to take every step to infuse liquidity.
*G7 meeting took place on Friday for synchronized steps to tackle global crisis.
*Rate cuts was seen in China, Japan, England and Australia too. China even cuts Repo rate.
*Crude fallen to 13 month low.
Sectors to Watch-
Some buying may be seen in Banks, Autos, Oil and Gas and Pharma sector while IT, Cement, Metals and Consumer index will still be under tremendous pressure.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Axis Bank, SBI, Maruti Suzuki and Reliance Industries.
On down side we may see Reliance Infra, Punj Lloyds, Tata Steel and JSPL .

Read more...

Market Today on 10.10.2008

Yesterday was a pleasure for all not only because we celebrated Dushehra and Vijaya Dashami but also we did not witneesed the blood bath in the market as it was closed, but today again the same story will carry on, market now a days discounting all the good news whether there is a CRR cut or a FED cut, and it is sinking deep and deep, again a huge gap down opening is expected and Nifty may test its support level of 3280 and Sensex level of 10600 today. We may see some buying at this level leading to some first aid in the last hour.
Total turnover traded in markets stood at Rs 75,587.35 crore. This includes Rs 12,807.82 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 57,666.95 crore from NSE F&O segment and balance Rs 5,112.58 crore from BSE cash segment.
3280 in Nifty and 10600 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 2900 level and 9470 in Sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3280-3550 in nifty and 10600-11650 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*Fed cuts 50 bps to 1.75%, but no positive reaction is witnessed ad Dowjones fell below 9000 level.
*Another CRR cut is expected to boost the morale of the institution buying.
*TCS may buy Citi group global for 505 Million dollar.
*Infosys Q2 result seen up by 9.6% to 1427.5 Crores.
Sectors to Watch-
Fresh shorting may sink sectors like infrastructures, Banks, Realty and Capital goods. IT and Telecom will further lose ground, Metal will remain dull, Auto, FMCG and Health care may resist the free fall.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Hero Honda, ITC, Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma.
On down side we may see Reliance Infra, DLF, JP Associates, Suzlon and ICICI bank .

Read more...

Market Today on 08.10.2008

Market may open gap up with 20-30 points in Nifty and nothing unusual will be witnessed today. Nifty may gain upto 100 points from where again a selling pressure may lead to a choppy finish. There is expectation of fed cut in next meeting and this may lead to a good start but as now a days the panic situation has made such a havoc that any rally doesn’t sustain and selling starts and nothing beyond this is going to happen again.
Turnover was bit better today; it stood at Rs 77,297.33 crore. This includes Rs 12,797.73 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 59,767.70 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 4,731.90 crore from BSE Cash segment.
3280 in Nifty and 10600 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 2900 level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3530-3700 in nifty and 11500-11800 in Sensex.


HOT NEWS
*Nano plant finds a new place in Gujarat.
*JP Morgan expects a fed cut at least by 50 bps in last two meet.
*Fed offers loan of about 900 billion dollars to banks to ensure liquidity in the market.
*P- Note modification failed to attract FII as they are still in exiting mode.
Sectors to Watch-
CRR cut have not shown much impact but still it can be a factor for rate sensitive sectors to recover a bit so Banks, Realty, Autos and Capital goods may gain, Oil and Gas may recover more while IT will remain under pressure. Metals can gain if rally remains sustainable.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Bank Of India, HDFC Bank, Unitech, DCB, RNRL and Reliance industries.
On down side we may see Reliance Infra, Adlabs, JSPL,Rolta and HCL.

Read more...

Market Today on 07.10.2008

Market is expected to open gap up on CRR cut as announced by RBI but the cautious approach will be there. Nifty may reach to 3650-3700 where again we may witness fresh bout of selling and shorting as the sentiments is badly crushed during last two bleeding sessions. As the Nifty breeches below 3600 significantly we may see it falling to a level of 3250-3270 where some support is witnessed. Sensex can reach upto 12200 from where again the selling pressure can pull back to 11800 level. We are not going to have a long laugh on the CRR cut, the smile may be temorary and will be vanished soon. Though recovery of Dowjones from a fall of more than 700 points to 300 points may show some confidence for a short interval.
Traded turnover stood at Rs 61,188.05 crore. This includes 10,355.77 crore from NSE cash segment, Rs 46,853.23 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 3,979.05 crore from BSE Cash segment.
3280 in Nifty and 10600 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 2900 level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3450-3680 in nifty and 11500-12000 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
* RBI cut CRR by 50 bps to ensure liquidity in the market. It will be implemented from October11th and the cut will infuse Rs 20,000 crore into the system.
* Sebi revises P-notes norms, scraps ODI restrictions which was implemented in October 2007. Again this step was taken to ensure liquidity from FIIs
* Sensex fell below 12000 level and Nifty at below 3600 lowest ever in last two years.
Sectors to Watch-
Rate sensitive sectors like Banks and Realty may see some recovery of CRR cut, IT, Telecom and all other sector may still face pressure.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see SBI, Axis Bank, ICICI bank and DLF.
On down side we may see Reliance Infra, Adlabs, JSPL, RNRL and Tata Steel.

Read more...

Punj Lloyd- Exit to re enter at Lower level

Though Infra structures may have a good days in long run but this stock after falling belw 285 level significanty looks weak on chart, it is wise to utilize this volatility of market and sell this stock to re enter at lower level.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:-
The company has a market cap of more than8.110 crs with a P/E of 28.55 and EPS of 9.37. The company has lost significant amount of capital during this week and now looks week. Though order books are filled but to execute a huge debt is required and seeing the banking sector it seems a difficult task in near term. The market-wide correction has seen the stock correcting to a lowof Rs183 in July 2008. Thereafter, it rallied to a high of Rs317 in September 2008.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:-
The daily MACD is exhibiting negative divergences along with a crossover sell signal. This suggests that the trend is weakening. Abreak below Rs260 levels will see the stock correcting for potential target of Rs230 and Rs210 levels. The stock has been consistently closing below its short and near term averages for the past few sessions which suggest that the stock is set to break below the 260 support levels.
Days BSE NSE
30 290.10 290.05
50 285.06 285.04
150 295.49 295.48
200 339.04 339.10

ADVICE TO INVESTORS:-
It is recommended to traders to sell the stock at current levels and on rallies to resistance of Rs276-280 levels for target of Rs210.
TARGET:-
Based on above analysis targets estimated to re enter are
i) Short term – 255-260 Rs. for positional traders with stop loss of 288 Rs.
ii) Medium term – 205-210 Rs. if it breeches 260 significantly.
iii) Long Term –Buy at 210 or below level for a target of 350 Rs.

Note: - All above views are mine and before investing investors should apply their con sense and do it at their own risk.
HAPPY INVESTING

Read more...

Market Today on 6th Oct 2008

Market may start with a gap down by 20-30 points in Nifty taking global cues but soon expected to recover as 3780 is a good support for Nifty and is expected to bounce back from there. Bail out plan passed from house of representatives and this may act as a postive trigger to lift the market up. Heavy weights holds the key as Mid caps and Small caps may still face some selling. Asian markets are expected to open in positive and if it happens our market may see some good rally at the end as it is almost at its lowest level but if 3780 is breeched significantly then we may see it falling upto 3715 where it may find another support.
Turnover on Friday stood at Rs 61653.54 crore. This includes Rs 11880.63 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 44983.07 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 4789.84 crore from BSE cash segment.
3780 in Nifty and 12400 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 3710 level. Next reisistance will be faced at 4250 in Nifty and 14400 at sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3750-4000 in nifty and 12350-13000 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
Inflation cooled to sub 12 level and came at 11.99 vs 12.14.
The House of Representatives has approved the revised USD 700 billion bailout package. The US House voted 263-171 to approve of the financial rescue bill.
Tata finally exit Singur but promises to come with Nano in time.
Diiachii finally buying Ranbaxy.
Sectors to Watch-
Rate sensitive sectors may see some up move in second half specially Banks. Realty may recover after initial fall. IT and Telecom can see some recovery on approval of bail out plan by house of representatives. Metals may remain under pressure. Health sector may remain healthy in selected scripts.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Ranbaxy, TCS, Rolta, Hero Honda and Reliance Capital.
On down side we may see Cairns India, BPCL, RNRL and JSPL.

Read more...

Market Today on 03.10.2008

A good recovery from lows with some positive news of aaproval of Bailout and approval of Indo-US nuke deal at US senate may act as a positive trigger for the market, though approach may be cautious and as the US market is deep down we may see a gap up opening with profit booking soon. So overall a very volatile day is expected and trend may change very quickly during the day. Trading range is expected to be high.
Turnover on Wednesday was very low today as compared to Tuesday; it stood at Rs 62868.47 crore. This includes Rs 10,786.37 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 47,733.85 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 4,348.25 crore from BSE cash segment.
3850 in Nifty and 12500 in now the important and key support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 3760 level. Next reisistance will be faced at 4250 in Nifty and 14400 at sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3850-4050 in nifty and 12700-13400 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
US Senate passed Bail out plan of 700 bn $, 74 voted for, 25 voted against the bailout plan by the Senate.
US senate also approved Indo-US civilian Nuke deal, 86 Senators voted for the deal, while 13 opposed it.
Experts feel that due to liquidity crunch there may not be further rate hike in October.
Crude oil cooled by 3-4% and now at about 94-95$ range.
Sectors to Watch-
On passing of Nuke deal Power and Infrastructures may gain, banks may also gain on passing of Bail out. IT, telecom and Capital goods can see some upside, FMCG can have a good day. Oil sector may face pressure. Realty may recover, Fertilizers , Cements and Sugar will remain sedative.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Axis Bank, JP Associates, Rolta, PFC, Power grid, L&T and Suzlon.
On down side we may see Cairns India, Reliance Industries, RNRL and JSPL.
To select stocks to accumulate for long term go to stock analysis posted at this blog to have a overall view on the stocks.
For intraday traders it is advised to take proper position before going for short or long market may open. Book profit in small gains.
Lastly wishing you all a happy and earning trading day.

Read more...

Stock Analysis and Target for ITC

After increasing excise duty in non filter cigarette, filter cigarette business has been in demand and ITC being the leader in it can be maximum benefitted by it. Ohter business of ITC also has a better prospect now.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:-
The company has a market cap of more than72,500 crs with a P/E of 23.48 and EPS of ITC's core cigarettes segment has shown strong resilience to the impact of VAT managing to restrict the drop in cigarette volumes to ~2% in FY08. ITC has stopped production of non-filter cigarettes post the hike in excise duties on the same.This segment was contributing only ~10% of revenues and ~8% of profits. ITC accounts for almost 3/4th of the filter cigarettes market and will be the major beneficiary of the shift in demand from non-filter to filter cigarettes. In the coming quarters, it indicates the higher cigarette prices would get successfully absorbed by the industry and ITC's cigarette volume decline would significantly reduce. Outlook for the non-cigarette businesses such as hotels and paper remains positive with continued demand buoyancy.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:-
Technically the stocks looks strong on the chart and in spite of panic environment the stock is trading above its 30 dma. Daily RSI and weekly MACD indicates a positive divergence and have indication for a buy.
Days BSE NSE
30 189.47 189.57
50 189.68 189.74
150 197.43 197.49
200 199.20 199.25
ADVICE TO INVESTORS:-
It is recommended for short-term investors the stock at the current levels and on declines to support of Rs 184-185 levels. Targets are as mentioned below.
TARGET:-
Based on above analysis targets estimated are
i) Short term – 205-210 Rs. for positional traders with stop loss of 183 Rs.
ii) Medium term – 250-275 Rs. for investors, Once it crosses 880 Rs.and sustain there.
iii) Long Term –280-300 Rs. for investors.
Note: - All above views are mine and before investing investors should apply their con sense and do it at their own risk.
HAPPY INVESTING

Read more...