Stock Market

Deflation more dangerous than Inflation

2008-12-30T10:03:00.000-08:00

Inflation This term has been the maximum time used by most of the investors, traders, experts and almost everyone related to market. So emphasizing on this will be just a wastage of time, and straightway i will discuss the impact.

Inflation

Inflation certainly have a negative impact if it raises beyond the purchasing capacity but to some extent it is required for the ecomonic development and to maintain the strength of currency.

Deflation

Major topic to discuss is about deflation which is certainly more dangerous to the economy as if the purchasing power increases and the product is less in that ratio the strength of currency decreases leading to a topple in macro- economic system.

Let me add a story there were two people one was habitual drinker and lost everything but he had a collection of bottles of the drink, other was a miser businessman and made heavy cash by its business, suddenly there were deflation and all the cash collected by businessman was much much less valued than the bottles collected by the drinker.

Several countries like Japan, Brazil have a very high inflation number but developing very fast and the market are on the run, Zimbabwe has very very high inflation no.

Affect of Inflation and deflation on economy

Conclusion is that inflation is certainly not good due to variation in the income group, but deflation is much more dangerous as the value of your money gets down. Thus a balanced inflation rate is always good for growth of the countries economy.

HAPPY INVESTING

Technical Analysis of stocks

2008-12-30T04:26:00.000-08:00

Market moves on speculations and technical analysis, there is no way to study the speculations than to be a regular watcher of news and sites at net but there are some way to analyze a stock technically.
Technical analysis of a stock is based on the following

ATR (Average True Range

ATR is how much a stock moves in a day. It can be calculated from the previous close to the next day’s high or low. Or it can be calculated from the range form high to low in a single day. Whichever is greater is the “true range.”

MACD (Moving Average Convergence or Divergence)

It is a momentum indicator showing the momentum which is indicated for up ward move or downward trend by relating the average of price movement of the stock.

The MACD is the difference between a 26-day and 12-day exponential moving average.
The MACD on 9 days movement indicate a buy or sell opportunities.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

By seeing the history of a stock and present performance the strength is analyzed.
50 is the index and 30-70 indicates the flattish movement or constant movement while above 70 indicates excess buying and below 30 indicates excess selling.

HAPPY INVESTING

Support and Resistance in Stock Market

2008-12-30T02:58:00.000-08:00

Often it the market we come to a word called support and resistance. This article explains the exact meaning and how to estimate it.

Support is the point where buying power faces difficulty in the in the current downtrend and resistance is when the selling power faces difficulty in the current uptrend. In easier term

Support is the price point where new lows cease and prices begin to once again rise. Prices will approach the line of support from above. And Resistance is the price point where new highs cease and prices should revert and begin to fall. Prices will approach the line of resistance from below.

Factors Responsible for Support and Resistance of a stock

Market psychology is the most important factor for support and resistance based on the P/E and EPS the valuation of a share is calculated and any ups and down in them depends upon.

But when market runs the traders remember where prices went up so they purchase at support, and they remember when prices declined so they sell at resistance. Their emotional attachment to prices creates these levels of support and resistance. Fear and greed causes them to buy and sell at these points.

How to Derive support and Resistance of stocks

If we draw an imaginary chart of the movement of a stock the area of maximum congestion while going up can be assumed as resistance and the area of maximum congestion while falling downward can be assumed support.

For example if a stock ranges between 1000-1200 and during its movement we have seen that maximum time it ran at 1020 and moved up and maximum time when it went to 1240 if fell. So the support may be derived at 1020 and resistance at 1240.

Advice to Investors

In the current volatile market it is risky to derive any conclusive support or resistance so one should be careful while watching the movement of a stock.

HAPPY INVESTING

Market Today on 24.10.08

2008-10-23T14:40:00.000-07:00

As I had mentioned market breeched it 3000 crucial mark in Nifty for the first time since 24July 2006. It was again the bad global cue doing all the damage, today we may see a flat opening with an extensive volatility. Nifty may test its 2900 support but may not likely breech it. Dowjones closed in positive and Asian market are expected to have some recovery. As FII has been told to reverse its short position, some short covering is expected which may lead to a positive direction, again Nifty may hold it 3000 mark and Sensex may reach 10000 level. Inflation has further cooled down which may add advantage to the market.
The total traded turnover has quite improved; stood at Rs 67,918.19 crore. This includes Rs 10,544.45 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 53,624.95 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 3,748.79 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Nifty support is at 2900 and then at 2600 technically, and we may see Nifty touching 2900 today. Similarly in Sensex 9870 is the support level and next support is at 9400. Market range whole day is expected to be between 2890-3100 in nifty and 9600-10200 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*FII has been asked to reverse their short position, some short covering is expected.
*Inflation came in at 11.07% for week-ended October 11 as compared to 11.44% (WoW).
*Reliance Industries Q2 FY09 net profit was up 7.4% at Rs 4,122 crore as compared to Rs 3,837 crore. Net sales were up 39.8% or Rs 44,787 crore as against Rs 32,043 crore. Gross refining margins stood at USD 13.4 per barrel vs USD 15.4 per barrel QoQ..
*Crude oil is at about 69 $ per barrel. Support at 60 $ may be seen. Fuel price cut is on the card.
Sectors to Watch-
Banks, Realty may gain after initial jolt, Oil and Gas may have a good day. Auto will be firm. Fertilizers will have a fertile day. Power and Infrastructure may gain. FMCG, Consumer durables and Healthcare is expected to remain flat.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Aban offshore, Reliance Industries, RPL, Axis Bank, ICICI bank and Jindal steel.
On down side we may see Ranbaxy, India infoline and Tata motors.

Market Today on 22.10.08

2008-10-21T12:52:00.000-07:00

Though we had two striaght sessions closing in green but the volatility and market breath was not favorable at all, in spite of all necessary measures we have witnessed a time when market went in Red even in last two days, global cues remains the key which indicates a gap down opening. Nifty the gap may not be big but nifty is likely to open 30-40 points down and may fall further, the way European market crumbled today after a good run, indicates further trouble, baring a few companies Q2 numbers are not very inspiring clearly indicating an economic slowdown.
The total turnover was at 64,789.63 crore. This includes Rs 11,069.48 crore from the NSE Cash segment, Rs 49,845.05 crore from the NSE F&O and the balance Rs 3,875.10 from the BSE Cash segment
Nifty support is at 3200 and then at 2900 technically, but we may not see breeching 3000 at least for this week. Similarly in Sensex 9870 is the support level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3100-3300 in nifty and 10100-10800 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*Both RNRL and RIL agrees for Indian Government to be the third party in the case.
*Punj Lloyd wins a contract at Indonesia.
*JP Associates piled an exceptional Q2 numbers and profit is almost doubled, while Chennai Petro number came out to be in loss.
*Short selling may get a ban, Sebi will scrutinise the P-Note short selling data for sometime before arriving at a decision.
*ICICI Prudential shows positive growth rates despite financial crisis.
Sectors to Watch-
There may be profit booking in Realty, Autos and Metals, Capital goods and Consumer durables may too see a down fall, Banks may remain firm for one more day, Oil and Gas sector will face pressure after initial gain.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Reliance Capital, Indiainfoline, ICICI bank and JP Associates.
On down side we may see JSPL, DLF, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma

Market today on 20.10.2008

2008-10-19T10:42:00.000-07:00

After the end of another bad week when Sensex breeched its 10000 level for the first time since July 2006, we are heading towards another week, the start or the opening may be flat and Nifty may approach to breech its 3000 level but as the market is oversold, some good news like cut in CRR by 100 bps may show its affect and some buying may take place in selected sector. US market having a good last week may be a positive factor for us. But if Nifty breeches 3000 level significantly we may head towards another blow, volatility will be on extreme as usual.
Total market turnover on Friday stood at Rs 58,370.46 crore as against Rs 72,822.47 crore on Thursday. This includes Rs 10,477.78 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 43,767.13 crore from NSE F&O segment and balance Rs 4,125.55 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Nifty support is at 2900 and then at 2800 technically, but we may see some buying at 3000 level. Similarly in Sensex 9870 is the support level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3000-3200 in nifty and 9800-10200 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*Sensex breeched 10000 level for the first time since July 2006.
*Indication for a cut in Repo rate is on the floor of news.
*Infosys is still an over weight as per Morgan Stanley.
*Mphasis came out with fair Q2 FY 09 number.
Sectors to Watch-
Healthcare and Auto may remain flat, Banks and Realty may gain after initial jolt. Metals and IT may still remain in pressure. Capital goods may recover. Oil and Gas may enjoy fall in crude specially Oil marketting Companies.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see DCB, Axis bank, Reliance Capital, Aban offshore, Mphasis and Reliance Industries.
On down side we may see Satyam, Indiainfoline and JSPL.

Market Today on 16.10.2008

2008-10-15T13:26:00.000-07:00

A further chop in CRR will certainly be a morale boosting but the immediate effect doesn’t look on the scene as the global market is crumbling and our Market is following the same foot step, we may see a flat opening which in turn may proceed in green but the selling pressure will soon start as the investors not willing a single oppurtunity to sell and book profit, so some fresh shorting may be on the card leading to another fresh day with same old story. Though fall may not be freely but negative biasness will certainly be there. Participation is still very poor as the turn over indicates and it may take time to recover from this trauma.
Turnover traded in markets stood at Rs 57,406.46 crore. This includes Rs 9,838.99 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 43,996.07 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 3,571.40 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Support of 3500 in Nifty was broken as expected and the next support is at 3240 and then at 2900. Similarly in Sensex 10600 and then 9870 is the next two support level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3240-3450 in nifty and 10300-11300 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*RBI cuts CRR by 100 bps to 6.5% to infuse more liquidity in market. Bankers and MF welcomed the move.
*RBI may also provide 25000 Crores to lending institutions.
*L & T came out with poor number in Q2 FY09. Margin was 8.8% vs 9%.
*Rel Cap to synergise insurance, MF, Money products.
Sectors to Watch-
Banks, Realty, Capital goods may be flat with positive biasness on CRR cut, while Metal still looks weak, Infrastructure will be under pressure on L&T numbers, IT and Telecom will be on negative side on crumbling US market.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Reliance Capital, DLF, SBI, Bank of India and Hero Honda
On down side we may see JSPL, Infosys, RCOM, TCS and Tata Steel.

Market Today on 15.10.2008

2008-10-14T13:51:00.000-07:00

The way market started and then closed clearly shows lack of strength and the pull back was on short covering, again we are heading towards the same direction, though on momentum market may open flat with positive biasness but this biasness may change in direction in due course of the day and we may see the red with a couple of trading hours. Profit booking and fresh shorting will be witnessed in the first half itself until and unless some very hot and positive news comes into the picture. Global cues are not supportive, neither are the Iip numbers to boost up the market for long time.
Traded turnover was at Rs 63,360.10 crore. This includes 11,838.89 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 47,278.06 crore from NSE F&O segment and balance Rs 4,243.15 crore from BSE Cash segment.
Support of 3500 in Nifty will certainly break today and the next support is at 3240 and then at 2900. Similarly in Sensex 10600 and then 9870 is the next two support when 11400 is breeched. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3400-3550 in nifty and 11000-11600 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*US Government will infuse 125 billion dollar to rescue banks.
*A cut in interest rate is assumed by RBI very recently.
*ICICI bank assures to have enough liquidity with them.
*TCS may deal with MEA to expedite passport processing.
Sectors to Watch-
The profit booking may be witnessed again in sectors like Banks, Infrastructures and Capital goods. Oil and Gas may remain flat and metal may loose their shine further. Healthcare and Auto may see some green.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Cairns India, Maruti suzuki and Ranbaxy.
On down side we may see SBI, DLF, JSPL and Reliance Capital..

Market today on 14.10.2008

2008-10-13T13:30:00.000-07:00

It was a great pull back and a great start of the week, globally measures were taken to infuse liquidity in the market and to bring back the sentiments. The pull back is expected to continue in momentum and as we have a very positive global cue market may open gap up of at least 100 point in Nifty and we can see it going above 150 plus, though over all strength is still lacking as it is evident by the trading volume we can see some selling again at 3650-3700 level in Nifty.
Turnover traded was very low in today's session, stood at Rs 56,131.77 crore. This includes Rs 11,550.77 crore NSE cash segment, Rs 40,624.27 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 3,956.73 crore from BSE cash segment
If market opens a big gap up then 3500 in Nifty and 11400 will be the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 3200 level and 10300 in sensex and then at 2900 in Nifty and 9450 in Sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3470-3700 in nifty and 11300-12050 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*FM applauds RBI move for infusing liquidity and ensures for more steps to be taken.
*US FED in joint statement with the European banks said that, “Commercial banks would be able to borrow any amount they whish against the appropriate collateral in each jurisdiction”
*Kingfisher ties up with Jet airways for both local and international routes.
*ICICI managements clears the rumor against it and indicated as financial sound.
Sectors to Watch-
All the sectors today again will be on upmove and the most beaten one in past like Banks, Realty and Metals will be on top. Capiatal goods and Autos will also gain. IT and Telecom is expected to have a good recovery on record up move of US market.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Axis Bank, SBI, Jindal Steel and Power and Reliance Capital.
On down side we may see Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma .

Market Today on 13.10.2008

2008-10-12T11:13:00.000-07:00

After such a disasterous week we are now proceeding to another week and the market is just at its support level at 3260-3280 in Nifty. Several measures has been taken to revive the market globally and not only there was a Fed cut and CRR cut but also Bank of Englnd, China, Japan all were cutting rates to infuse some liquidity. G7 meet on Friday and Bush reassurance have made an excellent recovery for US market. We expect a gap don opening of 30-40 points in Nifty but at some point buying will be seen as most of the investors are sitting with cash and now the level is appropriate, so after a gap down market may turn into positive but how much point up it will sustain is still not clear. But if Nifty falls by more than 50 points then we may see another free fall and next support is only at 2900 level.
Total turnover on Friday traded was very low, it stood at Rs 68,100.82 crore. This includes Rs 14,727.85 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 48,279 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 5,093.97 crore from BSE cash segment
3200 in Nifty and 10400 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 2900 level and 9470 in Sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3220-3350 in nifty and 10300-10850 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*RBI cuts CRR further by 150 bps. FM assured to take every step to infuse liquidity.
*G7 meeting took place on Friday for synchronized steps to tackle global crisis.
*Rate cuts was seen in China, Japan, England and Australia too. China even cuts Repo rate.
*Crude fallen to 13 month low.
Sectors to Watch-
Some buying may be seen in Banks, Autos, Oil and Gas and Pharma sector while IT, Cement, Metals and Consumer index will still be under tremendous pressure.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Axis Bank, SBI, Maruti Suzuki and Reliance Industries.
On down side we may see Reliance Infra, Punj Lloyds, Tata Steel and JSPL .

Market Today on 10.10.2008

2008-10-09T13:16:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was a pleasure for all not only because we celebrated Dushehra and Vijaya Dashami but also we did not witneesed the blood bath in the market as it was closed, but today again the same story will carry on, market now a days discounting all the good news whether there is a CRR cut or a FED cut, and it is sinking deep and deep, again a huge gap down opening is expected and Nifty may test its support level of 3280 and Sensex level of 10600 today. We may see some buying at this level leading to some first aid in the last hour.
Total turnover traded in markets stood at Rs 75,587.35 crore. This includes Rs 12,807.82 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 57,666.95 crore from NSE F&O segment and balance Rs 5,112.58 crore from BSE cash segment.
3280 in Nifty and 10600 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 2900 level and 9470 in Sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3280-3550 in nifty and 10600-11650 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*Fed cuts 50 bps to 1.75%, but no positive reaction is witnessed ad Dowjones fell below 9000 level.
*Another CRR cut is expected to boost the morale of the institution buying.
*TCS may buy Citi group global for 505 Million dollar.
*Infosys Q2 result seen up by 9.6% to 1427.5 Crores.
Sectors to Watch-
Fresh shorting may sink sectors like infrastructures, Banks, Realty and Capital goods. IT and Telecom will further lose ground, Metal will remain dull, Auto, FMCG and Health care may resist the free fall.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Hero Honda, ITC, Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma.
On down side we may see Reliance Infra, DLF, JP Associates, Suzlon and ICICI bank .

Market Today on 08.10.2008

2008-10-07T08:50:00.000-07:00

Market may open gap up with 20-30 points in Nifty and nothing unusual will be witnessed today. Nifty may gain upto 100 points from where again a selling pressure may lead to a choppy finish. There is expectation of fed cut in next meeting and this may lead to a good start but as now a days the panic situation has made such a havoc that any rally doesn’t sustain and selling starts and nothing beyond this is going to happen again.
Turnover was bit better today; it stood at Rs 77,297.33 crore. This includes Rs 12,797.73 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 59,767.70 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 4,731.90 crore from BSE Cash segment.
3280 in Nifty and 10600 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 2900 level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3530-3700 in nifty and 11500-11800 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
*Nano plant finds a new place in Gujarat.
*JP Morgan expects a fed cut at least by 50 bps in last two meet.
*Fed offers loan of about 900 billion dollars to banks to ensure liquidity in the market.
*P- Note modification failed to attract FII as they are still in exiting mode.
Sectors to Watch-
CRR cut have not shown much impact but still it can be a factor for rate sensitive sectors to recover a bit so Banks, Realty, Autos and Capital goods may gain, Oil and Gas may recover more while IT will remain under pressure. Metals can gain if rally remains sustainable.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Bank Of India, HDFC Bank, Unitech, DCB, RNRL and Reliance industries.
On down side we may see Reliance Infra, Adlabs, JSPL,Rolta and HCL.

Market Today on 07.10.2008

2008-10-06T13:11:00.000-07:00

Market is expected to open gap up on CRR cut as announced by RBI but the cautious approach will be there. Nifty may reach to 3650-3700 where again we may witness fresh bout of selling and shorting as the sentiments is badly crushed during last two bleeding sessions. As the Nifty breeches below 3600 significantly we may see it falling to a level of 3250-3270 where some support is witnessed. Sensex can reach upto 12200 from where again the selling pressure can pull back to 11800 level. We are not going to have a long laugh on the CRR cut, the smile may be temorary and will be vanished soon. Though recovery of Dowjones from a fall of more than 700 points to 300 points may show some confidence for a short interval.
Traded turnover stood at Rs 61,188.05 crore. This includes 10,355.77 crore from NSE cash segment, Rs 46,853.23 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 3,979.05 crore from BSE Cash segment.
3280 in Nifty and 10600 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 2900 level. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3450-3680 in nifty and 11500-12000 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
* RBI cut CRR by 50 bps to ensure liquidity in the market. It will be implemented from October11th and the cut will infuse Rs 20,000 crore into the system.
* Sebi revises P-notes norms, scraps ODI restrictions which was implemented in October 2007. Again this step was taken to ensure liquidity from FIIs
* Sensex fell below 12000 level and Nifty at below 3600 lowest ever in last two years.
Sectors to Watch-
Rate sensitive sectors like Banks and Realty may see some recovery of CRR cut, IT, Telecom and all other sector may still face pressure.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see SBI, Axis Bank, ICICI bank and DLF.
On down side we may see Reliance Infra, Adlabs, JSPL, RNRL and Tata Steel.

Punj Lloyd- Exit to re enter at Lower level

2008-10-05T13:22:00.000-07:00

Though Infra structures may have a good days in long run but this stock after falling belw 285 level significanty looks weak on chart, it is wise to utilize this volatility of market and sell this stock to re enter at lower level.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:-
The company has a market cap of more than8.110 crs with a P/E of 28.55 and EPS of 9.37. The company has lost significant amount of capital during this week and now looks week. Though order books are filled but to execute a huge debt is required and seeing the banking sector it seems a difficult task in near term. The market-wide correction has seen the stock correcting to a lowof Rs183 in July 2008. Thereafter, it rallied to a high of Rs317 in September 2008.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:-
The daily MACD is exhibiting negative divergences along with a crossover sell signal. This suggests that the trend is weakening. Abreak below Rs260 levels will see the stock correcting for potential target of Rs230 and Rs210 levels. The stock has been consistently closing below its short and near term averages for the past few sessions which suggest that the stock is set to break below the 260 support levels.
Days BSE NSE
30 290.10 290.05
50 285.06 285.04
150 295.49 295.48
200 339.04 339.10

ADVICE TO INVESTORS:-
It is recommended to traders to sell the stock at current levels and on rallies to resistance of Rs276-280 levels for target of Rs210.
TARGET:-
Based on above analysis targets estimated to re enter are
i) Short term – 255-260 Rs. for positional traders with stop loss of 288 Rs.
ii) Medium term – 205-210 Rs. if it breeches 260 significantly.
iii) Long Term –Buy at 210 or below level for a target of 350 Rs.

Note: - All above views are mine and before investing investors should apply their con sense and do it at their own risk.
HAPPY INVESTING

Market Today on 6th Oct 2008

2008-10-05T12:53:00.000-07:00

Market may start with a gap down by 20-30 points in Nifty taking global cues but soon expected to recover as 3780 is a good support for Nifty and is expected to bounce back from there. Bail out plan passed from house of representatives and this may act as a postive trigger to lift the market up. Heavy weights holds the key as Mid caps and Small caps may still face some selling. Asian markets are expected to open in positive and if it happens our market may see some good rally at the end as it is almost at its lowest level but if 3780 is breeched significantly then we may see it falling upto 3715 where it may find another support.
Turnover on Friday stood at Rs 61653.54 crore. This includes Rs 11880.63 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 44983.07 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 4789.84 crore from BSE cash segment.
3780 in Nifty and 12400 in now the next support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 3710 level. Next reisistance will be faced at 4250 in Nifty and 14400 at sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3750-4000 in nifty and 12350-13000 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
Inflation cooled to sub 12 level and came at 11.99 vs 12.14.
The House of Representatives has approved the revised USD 700 billion bailout package. The US House voted 263-171 to approve of the financial rescue bill.
Tata finally exit Singur but promises to come with Nano in time.
Diiachii finally buying Ranbaxy.
Sectors to Watch-
Rate sensitive sectors may see some up move in second half specially Banks. Realty may recover after initial fall. IT and Telecom can see some recovery on approval of bail out plan by house of representatives. Metals may remain under pressure. Health sector may remain healthy in selected scripts.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Ranbaxy, TCS, Rolta, Hero Honda and Reliance Capital.
On down side we may see Cairns India, BPCL, RNRL and JSPL.

Market Today on 03.10.2008

2008-10-02T11:40:00.000-07:00

A good recovery from lows with some positive news of aaproval of Bailout and approval of Indo-US nuke deal at US senate may act as a positive trigger for the market, though approach may be cautious and as the US market is deep down we may see a gap up opening with profit booking soon. So overall a very volatile day is expected and trend may change very quickly during the day. Trading range is expected to be high.
Turnover on Wednesday was very low today as compared to Tuesday; it stood at Rs 62868.47 crore. This includes Rs 10,786.37 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 47,733.85 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 4,348.25 crore from BSE cash segment.
3850 in Nifty and 12500 in now the important and key support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 3760 level. Next reisistance will be faced at 4250 in Nifty and 14400 at sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3850-4050 in nifty and 12700-13400 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
US Senate passed Bail out plan of 700 bn $, 74 voted for, 25 voted against the bailout plan by the Senate.
US senate also approved Indo-US civilian Nuke deal, 86 Senators voted for the deal, while 13 opposed it.
Experts feel that due to liquidity crunch there may not be further rate hike in October.
Crude oil cooled by 3-4% and now at about 94-95$ range.
Sectors to Watch-
On passing of Nuke deal Power and Infrastructures may gain, banks may also gain on passing of Bail out. IT, telecom and Capital goods can see some upside, FMCG can have a good day. Oil sector may face pressure. Realty may recover, Fertilizers , Cements and Sugar will remain sedative.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Axis Bank, JP Associates, Rolta, PFC, Power grid, L&T and Suzlon.
On down side we may see Cairns India, Reliance Industries, RNRL and JSPL.
To select stocks to accumulate for long term go to stock analysis posted at this blog to have a overall view on the stocks.
For intraday traders it is advised to take proper position before going for short or long market may open. Book profit in small gains.
Lastly wishing you all a happy and earning trading day.

Stock Analysis and Target for ITC

2008-10-02T11:18:00.000-07:00

After increasing excise duty in non filter cigarette, filter cigarette business has been in demand and ITC being the leader in it can be maximum benefitted by it. Ohter business of ITC also has a better prospect now.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:-
The company has a market cap of more than72,500 crs with a P/E of 23.48 and EPS of ITC's core cigarettes segment has shown strong resilience to the impact of VAT managing to restrict the drop in cigarette volumes to ~2% in FY08. ITC has stopped production of non-filter cigarettes post the hike in excise duties on the same.This segment was contributing only ~10% of revenues and ~8% of profits. ITC accounts for almost 3/4th of the filter cigarettes market and will be the major beneficiary of the shift in demand from non-filter to filter cigarettes. In the coming quarters, it indicates the higher cigarette prices would get successfully absorbed by the industry and ITC's cigarette volume decline would significantly reduce. Outlook for the non-cigarette businesses such as hotels and paper remains positive with continued demand buoyancy.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:-
Technically the stocks looks strong on the chart and in spite of panic environment the stock is trading above its 30 dma. Daily RSI and weekly MACD indicates a positive divergence and have indication for a buy.
Days BSE NSE
30 189.47 189.57
50 189.68 189.74
150 197.43 197.49
200 199.20 199.25
ADVICE TO INVESTORS:-
It is recommended for short-term investors the stock at the current levels and on declines to support of Rs 184-185 levels. Targets are as mentioned below.
TARGET:-
Based on above analysis targets estimated are
i) Short term – 205-210 Rs. for positional traders with stop loss of 183 Rs.
ii) Medium term – 250-275 Rs. for investors, Once it crosses 880 Rs.and sustain there.
iii) Long Term –280-300 Rs. for investors.
Note: - All above views are mine and before investing investors should apply their con sense and do it at their own risk.
HAPPY INVESTING

Market Today on 01.10.2008

2008-09-30T13:16:00.000-07:00

The strong recovery from the new low after the statement of Finance Minister has regained confidence in the investors at least for the time being and the positive global cues combinedly will lead our market to open gap up of 40-50 points in Nifty we may witness a level of 4000 nifty in the first half itself and if it sustains there we may reach upto 4050 to 4080 mark. Ther may be some profit booking in the last hour but that may remain insignificant. If Asian market supports we may see Nifty even crossing 4200-4230 mark.
Total turnover traded was at 76,501.96 crore. This includes Rs 14,785.57 crore from NSE cash segment, Rs 56,549.63 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 5,166.76 crore from BSE cash segment.
3850 in Nifty and 12500 in now the important and key support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next immediate support is at 3760 level. Next reisistance will be faced at 4250 in Nifty and 14400 at sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 3900-4200 in nifty and 12750-13500 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
-US bailout rejected but not ruled out yet. FM said it is crucial for global market.
-As per FM Indian banks are financially sound and there is no need to panic.
-Goerge Bush called an urgent meeting to economy status and market crisis. US market reacted positive.
-Crude oil again touching 100$ per barrel mark.

Sectors to Watch-
On good global cues we may see buying in IT stocks, Telecom sectors and Banks, Realty will also gain and Metals may regain its shine. Fertilizers is expected to have a good day and Oil and Gas and Capital goods will also gain. HealthCare is expected to remain flat and so will be FMCG.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Reliance Capital, Jindal Steel and Power, Indiainfoline, Dabur India, Reliance Industries, Reliance Capital, Axis Bank and Adlabs
On down side we may see Tata Motors , Maruti Suzuki and NMDC.

Calls for this week- 29 Sep-03.10.2008

2008-09-30T12:39:00.000-07:00

Buy Reliance Infra @ 800 for a target of 905, 910.
Buy Adlabs @ 335-340 for a target of 385-390
Buy Indiainfoline @ 95 for a target of 107-110
Buy Jindal Steel and Power @ 1260-1275 for a target of 1400-1410
Buy Reliance Industries @ 1950-1960 for a target of 2100, 2125

Stock Analysis- Dabur India Limited

2008-09-30T12:33:00.000-07:00

In the current volatile market when after every recovery a new low is attained, this stock is a defensive one and can give a risk free profit in long term as well in near term.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:-
The company has a market cap of more than7,700 crs with a P/E of 24.20 and EPS of 3.74. After gaining a strong presence in its core segments like hair oil and health supplements, DIL has successfully added new businesses like foods, oral care (toothpaste), international business and shampoos over the past five years. DIL has entered the organized retail market by setting up retail stores based on the health and beauty platform. Till date, DIL has opened 7 'new U' stores and plans to add 5-6 new stores during FY09. The retail venture is expected to generate revenues of ~Rs400mn in FY09 and to break even by FY11. DIL plans to invest ~Rs2.5bn over the next two years. Besides a ~Rs1.2bn brownfield expansion in FY09, DIL also plans to set up ~Rs1.5bn greenfield plant in FY10 in the tax free zone, which will enable it to take advantage of MAT till 2020.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:-
With strong growth momentum across segments, it is expected DIL to register revenue CAGR of 16% and a PAT CAGR of 17.1% over FY08-10. Technically the stock is above its 30 dma and 50 dma and a strong rally could easily lift it above its 150 dma. Days BSE NSE
30 90.76 90.83
50 90.85 90.89
150 95.75 95.84
200 98.66 98.71
ADVICE TO INVESTORS:-
It is recommended for short-term investors the stock at the current levels and on declines to support of Rs 84-85 levels. Targets are as mentioned below.
TARGET:-
Based on above analysis targets estimated are
i) Short term – 100-103 Rs. for positional traders with stop loss of 82 Rs.
ii) Medium term – 125-135 Rs. for investors, Once it crosses 110Rs.and sustain there.
iii) Long Term –180-200 Rs. for investors.
Note: - All above views are mine and before investing investors should apply their con sense and do it at their own risk.
HAPPY INVESTING

Market Today on 26.09.2008

2008-09-25T07:48:00.000-07:00

After the negative finish on F & O expiry we may see the start of a new chapter and the start is expected to be positive as the US market reacted very positively on call for emergency meeting by US President to take steps to solve the market crisis, India may also react positively and it is expected a gap up opening of 50-60 points in Nifty, buying may be seen all around and we may cross 4200 by the end of the day. 4250-4300 will be the level where profit booking may be seen again.
Total turnover crossed Rs 1-lakh crore mark due to F&O expiry. It stood at Rs 1,03,047.35 crore. This includes Rs 15,291.03 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 82,697.69 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 5,058.63 crore from BSE Cash segment.
4000 in Nifty and 13200 in now the important and key support level in nifty and Sensex respectively. If this support level is breeched again then next support is at 3850 level. Next reisistance will be faced at 4300 in Nifty and 14600 at sensex. Market range whole day is expected to be between 4050-4200 in nifty and 13250-14000 in Sensex.

HOT NEWS
Inflation remains to unchanged at 12.14, expectation was a bit higher.
Rupee ended further lower and bonds higher.
Goerge Bush called an urgent meeting to economy status and market crisis. US market reacted positive.
Sectors to Watch-
On good global cues we may see some buying in IT as US market reacted positively on Goerge Bush statement that no stone will be left unturned to overcome the crisis. Banks and Realty may recover further, Capital goods may gain, Health sector, FMCG and Auto will remain passive while Metals may regain its shine.
Stock to Watch-
On the upside we may see Sterlite Industries, Jindal Steel and Power, Reliance Petro, India Infoline, TCS, Infosys and HDFC
On down side we may see Tata Motors and Cairns India.

Lastly wishing you all a happy and earning trading day.

Profit For Sure- Aban Offshore

2008-09-14T11:44:00.000-07:00

Aban offshore an offshore company is on high demand on its new contract with Venture drilling. It is a fundamentally strong script present at very discounted rate.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:-
The company has a market cap of more than 8,700 crs with a P/E of 43.36 and EPS of 53.19. Venture Drilling AS, a company in which a subsidiary of Aban Offshore Ltd (Aban) has a 50% shareholding, has signed a 18 month contract with Maersk Oil Angola, at an operating day rate of US$495,000 after withholding tax. Although about 100 rigs (jack-ups, semi-submersible and FPSO) are likely to be delivered in the next three years, we believe demand would be strong enough to absorb incremental supply. Aban has clocked the highest operating margins in the industry at a global scale. Further, the growth rate expected for Aban over the next couple of years is higher than most of its peers.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:-
The stock is trading at a steep discount of 40-45% compared to its global peers based on FY09E and FY10E P/E multiples. It is at present below its 30 dma and may look technically week, but offshore companies has a great future and can bounce back shortly. The stock has witnessed a high of 5,555 Rs and no at very discounted rate.

ADVICE TO INVESTORS:-
It is recommended for short-term investors the stock at the current levels and on declines for the target given below. Based on above analysis targets estimated arei) Short term – 2540-2560 Rs. for positional traders with stop loss of 2240 Rs. ii) Medium term – 3100-3150 Rs. for investors, Once it crosses 2700 Rs.and sustain there.iii) Long Term – 4200-4300 Rs. for investors.
Note: - All above views are mine and before investing investors should apply their con sense and do it at their own risk.
HAPPY INVESTING

Market Today on 15th Sep 08

2008-09-14T11:40:00.000-07:00

Last week was a bad week and it created a wave of panic among the investors and the market breeched its important support levels. All the good news were ignored. Now the first day of the week is the important day and to say a descesive day of bull and bears fight. News are positive, market has discounted more than enough and it is expected a good start of the week and the market may open 30-40 points gap up in Nifty. It is expected that market may hold its support of 4300 in nifty and 14300 in sensex by the end of the day.
Total turnover was very high in today’s trade, which stood at Rs 75,013.72 crore. This includes Rs 12,437.57 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 57,492.96 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 5083.19 crore from BSE Cash segment.
4300 in Nifty and 14300 in Sensex has been breeched and all depends on todays market, it is expected that on positive news market may hold its support again but if Nifty falls below 4200 then Bear may tighten its grip and we can see a fall below 4000. Market range whole day is expected to be between 4180-4310 in nifty and 13900-14350 in Sensex.
Sectors to Watch-
Market sentiments if remain positive then Metals and Banks will be the major gainer. IT can enjoy strengthening of dollar. Sugar is expected to be bitter yet another day. Realty may recover on releif rally. Reliance may decide Oil and Gas sectors movement.
Stock to Watch-
ICICI Bank, Indiabulls finance, Reliance infra, Thermax and Aban offshore. Reliance Industries is expected to bounce back.
To select stocks to accumulate for long term go to blogs of gujjubulls to have a overall view on the stocks.
For intraday traders it is advised to take proper position before going for short or long market may open. Book profit in small gains.
Lastly wishing you all a happy and earning trading day.

Market Today on 08.09.08

2008-09-07T07:49:00.000-07:00

Friday was a day of profit booking on the confusion about Nuclear deal, now as the deal is through and India got NSG waiver, market seems to react positively. Asian markets were beaten badly in last 2-3 sessions are also due for a recovery and this will all lead to a GREEN opening of market with an expected 50-60 points up in Nifty. Market may range at this level and may see some more upward movement in second half on cues of European markets which are also expecting a good recovery.

The market turnover stood at Rs 63,055.53 crore. This includes Rs 11,390.26 crore from NSE Cash segment, Rs 46,868.19 crore from NSE F&O and balance Rs 4,797.08 crore from BSE Cash segment.
4300 in Nifty and 14300 in Sensex is the strong support level in Nifty and Sensex respectively. Though these level doesn’t seems to get breeched in near term as the market will hold at 4300 right now Market range whole day is expected to be between 4300-4480 in nifty and 14200-15000 in Sensex.

Sectors to Watch-
Power and Energy, Infrastructures, Capital goods will be the major gainer, Banks and Realty may be positive on decreasing inflation, other sectors will be sedative with positive bias.
Stock to Watch-
Reliance Industries, Reliance Infra, NTPC, Rolta, Areva T & D, L&T, JP Associates and Suzlon Energy.

Market Today on 29.08.2008

2008-08-28T12:56:00.000-07:00

Market was extremely cautious on F & O expiry and the fear of inflation as the last two week the number was not favorable at all. Ultimately selling lead to deep correction of market leading to a crucial level of both Sensex and Nifty. As 4200 is a strong ans sustainable support and this time apart from positive cues by US we have another important positive trigger of cooled inflation a GREEN starting is expected with nifty up by 40-50 points and rising above 100 in the mid way. Some ups and downs will be there in that range but ultimately we can have a happy ending of the weekend.
Turnover traded in markets has improved a lot, especially due to F&O expiry. It stood at Rs 83,236.95 crore. This includes Rs 66,164.24 crore from F&O segment, Rs 4,041.46 crore from BSE Cash and balance Rs 13,031.25 crore from NSE Cash segment.
4200 in Nifty and 14000 in Sensex is the strong support level in Nifty and Sensex respectively, and if this is breached we may see again market going down below 4000 level in Nifty. Though these level doesn’t seems to get breeched in near term. Market range whole day is expected to be between 4190-4400 in nifty and 14000-14500 in Sensex.

Sectors to Watch-
Banks and Realty will lead the way on cooling inflation. Sugars and Fertilizers may see some recovery. Oil Exploration Company may see some fall. Capital goods is likely to be winner. Auto will pick up its speed and metals expected to shine. Healthcare, FMCG may remain flat.
Stock to Watch-
Markasans Pharma, Reliance Industries, ICICI bank, Reliance Capital and Indiabulls finance.